Gordon Moore, over 40 years ago, noticed a fairly simple trend in electronics and included it in an article he was asked to write for Electronics on the future of electronics. Little would he know that this would not only prove to hold almost perfectly true till today, but also have such a large impact on technology and economics. Moore stated that transistor density on circuits would double about every two years and that they would become the future of electronics.

Moore at the time acknowledged that he believed his prediction would only hold for the short term and possibly up to 10 years. Little did he know his extrapolation would be so accurate. Today this law is the backbone of the computing industry, not only for high-end processors in super computers but also for bringing us tiny cell phones and pocket pc’s that are more powerful than computers made just years ago. This is also the reason you can expect to see small processors in just about every household appliance in the near future.

With that said, there is also talk of the so far indestructible extrapolation failing do to atomic limits. Moore himself has even recently stated that his prediction could not remain true forever. Transistors, like all other things are made from atoms. So while transistors are getting smaller atoms are not. Right there is a fairly simplistic barrier; you shouldn’t be able to make a transistor smaller than an atom. This limit if we continue on Moore’s pace would be reached in the next 10-20 years.

While this is still a distance away it brings up the question when if ever will the pace of electrons slow down, a pace that has been treated just like a fact during the recent computer boom. Regardless of if Moore’s law ever fails, its important to see the power and impact of good extrapolation. Although Moore himself may think his law is done in the next 10-20 years, he did also think the same thing over 40 years ago.

Sources:

http://www.techworld.com/opsys/news/index.cfm?NewsID=3477

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/columnist/kevinmaney/2005-04-12-maney_x.htm