Information Cascades and Presidential Primaries

http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/news/nation/politics/17177869.htm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/03/AR2007050301261.html

The above articles discuss how the presidential primaries for 2008 have become increasingly consolidated to the beginning of the normal primary season.  Why would this happen?  Indeed, if many states have primaries on the same day, wouldn’t that decrease rather than increase a states influence in the primaries?  Well, this appears to be a classic information cascade at work.  It began with Nevada moving their caucus up to Jan 19th.  After that, other states saw the signal that Nevada gave, that moving up primaries is a good idea.  In contrast to the model we developed in class, the other states also saw the result of Nevada’s move. So, states began moving up their primaries and caucuses based on Nevada’s signal and the states desire to increase their national prestige.  Classic information cascade.

Posted in Topics: Education

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