Based on the article We Want…Information written by Julian Sanchez on June 28, 2004.

What this article discusses is the information cascade phenomena that we have discussed in class with regards to the military intelligence we have had in the past. This article mostly describes the Iraq war and the information cascade that is related to it.

When the United States first decided to go to war against Iraq, many of our reasons were a bit hazy and there were definitely some skeptics within the intelligence community about the major false claims that were made before the war. Why did they never speak up and let their voices be heard? Sanchez claims that it has to do with the hierarchical structure of our intelligence. He claims that it can basically be blamed on subordinates sucking up to their superiors. Basically, subordinates tend to tell their superiors exactly what they want to hear, regardless of their own opinions. Therefore, the higher up any hierarchical ladder you go, the more distorted the picture becomes. So by the time it reached our president, he was doomed for ignorance since everyone below him had already distorted the picture enough.

He also brings up a good point about accountability in intelligence work: “If you’re wrong when the majority gets it wrong, you’re unlikely to get singled out, but if you dissent from an accurate consensus, the mistake is much more likely to get noticed.” This kind of effect is what can make these cascades pretty dangerous. It dissuades people from going against the norm and standing up for what they believe in. Especially when you’re in a higher position of power and a very good job is on the line, such a decision can cost you that job that you had been working so hard to attain. Unless that negative effect is somehow alleviated, our intelligence “community” will only be comprised of a small number of “experts” and from there on out, others will more than likely agree with what they say.

This article serves as another reminder why information cascades can be costly. It is not a good thing to see these things happening in the highest branches of the government because all our lives depend on their decisions. If we have people making misinformed decisions based on some “follow-the-leader” type game, things will not always work out to our advantage. These kind of intelligence failures, to go along with what we have already seen in class and the other blogs, goes to show you how important it is to stand up for what you believe in and to have an opinion. Sure, every now and then you may be forced to follow the cascade, but this all serves as a reminder to check every now and then whether or not you’re just “following the leader off a cliff”