The Swine Flu as an Information Cascade

Recently, there has been an international panic over the idea of the swine flu. Much in the same way the flu itself is contagious and travels through a branching network, the panic of becoming sick or infected is passing throughout the world. Much of this is due to an information cascade. Because people have seen and heard of other flu viruses, the idea of the swine flu has been, in many ways, blown out of proportion in individuals’ responses. For one, the name “swine flu” is causing a gigantic problem. When people hear the word “swine” they immediately believe they are drawing the rational inference that pigs are extremely dangerous. However, a person cannot, in fact, get swine influenza from eating or preparing pork. The flu viruses are not spread by food, and eating properly handled pork products is entirely safe. The information cascade that exists is seen as people’s decision-making is affected in response to the behavior of others (panic) and the name of the flu (“swine”). For example, the virus is even affecting business in certain countries. Israel has rejected the name swine flu because of Jewish dietary laws prohibiting eating pork, the Paris-based World Organization for Animal Health have objected the name, and U.S. pork producers are arguing that the name of the virus is affecting their business. Pork, soybean, and corn prices have actually fallen in the last two days (April 27th-April 29th). Other groups are also expressing concern over the behavior of individuals, who are actually hurting their business. Groups such as the National Pork Producers Council, the National Pork Board, and the American Meat Institute, represent the pork industry and are asking the Agriculture Department to change the name “swine flu” and to reiterate to the public that pork is still entirely safe. This incorrect fear caused simply by the name “swine” has even led to a mass slaughter of pigs in some areas. Egypt slaughtered a staggering 300,000 pigs the country just as a precaution against swine flu even though no cases have been reported there! Farmers are now furious. They have blocked the streets, and demanded compensation for each individual pig slaughtered. In Cairo, Egypt the government has responded and paid each about 1,000 Egyptian pounds, or $180. Most of these responses are entirely a result of a misunderstanding. This is an overreaction to the point where the global economy is being affected. The disease actually has nothing to do with eating pork! If swine flu were only called by its true scientific name, H1N1 flu, none of this would be going on. It is a prime example of information traveling through a network to the point where it becomes distorted. In fact, some people believe they are acting very rationally, simply because of past experiences. For example, “global health experts said the mass slaughter of pigs in Egypt was entirely unnecessary and a waste of resources. But Egypt’s reaction was colored by its experiences with bird flu.” In 2003, an Asian outbreak of the bird flu killed more than 250 worldwide and Egypt suffered 23 deaths, the fourth highest death toll from this virus. After this experience, the Egyptians killed 25 million birds within weeks, imposing serious damage to the poultry sector of business, specifically the family farmers. This behavior is now being repeated with the slaughtering of pigs. The panic of the swine flu is spreading through the global network of humans in ways unimaginable. The information is becoming distorted and people are responding in ways that are not only unnecessary, but also even harmful to the pork industry, agricultural businesses, and to the existence of pigs themselves. Most of this behavior is a result of an information cascade. With very little knowledge of the swine flu, people assume that eating pork can be contagious. This behavior is copied, causing a cascade, leading to huge declines in pork industries and much unwarranted behavior.

http://www.wtopnews.com/index.php?nid=105&sid=1663616.
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/04/28/20090428swine-name0428-ON.html
http://www.javno.com/pr.php?id=254398

Posted in Topics: Education

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