Climate modelers believe there is a “better than 90 percent chance” that the sea-level rise along the northeastern coast of the United States will exceed the global average by the year 2100. If so, the most populous states and cities and the centers of economy, politics, culture and education would be at risk for flooding, submersion of low-lying land, erosion of beaches, increased salinity of estuaries, and more.  

The modelers, led by Jianjun Yin of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, used data from 10 existing climate models in reaching their conclusion about the vulnerability of the northeastern United States. They found that rapid sea-level rise would occur whether they used low, medium or high rates of greenhouse gases in their models. They projected a global sea-level rise of 10.2 inches based on climate warming. The New York City coastal area would see an additional rise of about 8.3 inches. Much of New York City is less than 16 feet above the current mean sea level, and some parts are only five feet above the mean sea level.

Writing for the March 15 issue of Nature Geoscience, the modelers say the northeast U.S. coast is vulnerable because the circulation of warm and cold seawaters in the Atlantic Ocean is especially susceptible to global warming. They also point out that their models show future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect than estimated previously for this heavily populated region.