An Antarctic species whose response to climate warming has been documented in recent decades gives researchers cause for concern today. As sea ice shrinks, the emperor penguin colony on Terre Adelie could decline from about 3,000 breeding pairs to 400 by the end of the century.

One colony around the French research station in Terre Adelie has been monitored since the 1960s. In a study funded in part by the National Science Foundation, researchers have modeled how the colony will respond to the melting sea ice in the future.

From earlier monitoring, they have evidence of the colony’s response when sea ice declined by 10 or 11 percent in the 1970s. According to biologist Hal Caswell with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, “During that period, the emperor penguin population there crashed by about half — it went from about 6,000 breeding pairs down to about 3,000 breeding pairs.”  When colder temperatures returned, the population stabilized.

The researchers believe other penguin colonies in the Antarctic will suffer as the continent warms. They call for more research to make projections at the species level. As for the emperor penguins, Caswell says he doesn’t know if it is too late for action but emphasizes that it “certainly is time to start trying to do something about it. The situation won’t get any better the longer that we delay in taking action.”

The researchers’ work is reported in the National Science Foundation’s weekly online magazine Science Nation, Climate Change Likely to Devastate Emperor Penguin Populations in Antarctica. The article includes downloadable videos, photos, and links to other research related to penguins.

The February 2009 issue of Beyond Penguins and Polar Bears featured birds of the Arctic and Antarctic. Along with lessons and activities for K-5 classrooms, the issue’s Virtual Bookshelf highlights children’s books about penguins.